 |
| 2011 Sprint Cup Champion Tony Stewart and a blur of the competition looking to dethrown him. |
At this point in the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, it’s hard to decide the favorite to win this year’s championship.
Drivers like points leader, Greg Biffle, and second place Denny Hamlin are having great comeback seasons. Are they capable of taking the crown at season’s end? Time will tell.
Others like, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Martin Truex Jr. have consistently been near the front of the points since Daytona, but will that pay off in the Chase without wins? History says no, ask Carl Edwards.
So far this season we have seen races with a lot of green flag laps. This year’s Coke 600 was the biggest proprietor of all, setting the record for the fastest ever 600 mile race in history, putting the 234 consecutive at Texas on the backburner.
Some of the races have lacked the excitement they’ve been hyped up to be, this frustrates me as a fan like many of you. That said, no matter how many green flag laps or how “boring” (according to most) the races may seem, the end product is that the competition is perhaps better than ever.
If you take away the deficiency of drama, aka “wrecks”, the competition this season has been outstanding.
After 12 of 36 races this season, 9 different drivers have scored at least one win.
Drivers that struggled the past few seasons have new found success. Dale Jr. can possible end his winless drought this year and team Hendrick Motorsports is back to form. What else could we ask for…more Danica?
With 14 races remaining until the Chase cutoff, teams are entering the summer stretch which can make or break their season.
Prepare yourselves because some races this summer will have long green flag stretches. However if the competition is anything like what we’ve seen so far, the drama will build as the cutoff point nears.
It’s too early to declare a champion but after completing a third of the season, some drivers stand out over others.
Will they continue the success, will they be the champion? Like the lottery, NASCAR is hard to predict, but like many of us we try to do it anyways. Now is my turn.
Here are my rankings on where drivers stack up at this point of the season and who I believe makes the top 10 in points as we enter the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
Where They Stack Up
1) Jimmie Johnson – If we take away the two restrictor plate tracks, Johnson’s worst finish is a 12th at Martinsville. After wins at Darlington and the Sprint Allstar race, this team is showing the caliber that led them to 5 straight titles. With a little luck in the pits, the 48 team is the team to beat for the title. #6pack is trending.
2) Denny Hamlin - When Joe Gibb’s Racing signed Darian Grubb, I knew it could bring instant success. Hamlin is showing why he finished 2nd in points a few years ago and is a rejuvenated man. Early wins at Phoenix and Kansas and an average finish of 8.8 has elevated Hamlin’s team into the conversation about title threats. The summer has been good in the past for Hamlin, winning at Pocono, Michigan, Richmond
3) Greg Biffle – The current points leader is having a comeback year. Biffle and crew chief Matt Puccia have built a chemistry that Biffle had in earlier years when he was a championship threat. If you take away the short tracks and Darlington(12th) Biffle’s worst finish is 6th. Snapping his drought with the win at Texas was great for the Biff. I see another win coming before the Chase: Pocono, Michigan, Kentucky, or Indy
4) Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” has must have had a noise violation, because we haven’t heard a peep from him since last year. Kyle Busch however, is lurking around the corner. In what seems like a tame season for Kyle, the JGR cars are capable of winning any week. It is only a matter of time before Kyle lights it up and wins a few more races. He enters this weekend’s race at Pocono with four straight top 5 finishes. The 18 car is due for another race soon. Fortunately for Kyle Busch he can do that on any track.
5) Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Junior Nation has had plenty to celebrate this season. Earnhardt leads all drivers with 9 top 10 finishes and in their second year together he and crew chief Steve Letarte are in racing harmony. Consistent finishes have kept Jr. in the top 5 in points. This won’t win the championship. A win is possible if Jr. keeps running the way he is, but unfortunately other than Daytona, I don’t have a track where he may be favored.
6) Brad Keselowski – Brad seems to be hot one week, cold the next. Blame it on bad luck, blame it on misfortunes, the end result is that he can win races. Wins at Bristol and Talladega have put Brad in the catbird seat for making the Chase as a wildcard, but I think the blue deuce gets in via the top ten in points and will win more races. I’d watch out for this guy in the Chase.
7) Tony Stewart – Last year’s champion has an uphill battle to defend the thrown of NASCAR. Though he has 2 wins this season, Stewart and new crew chief Steve Addington have struggled to find what they need on raceday. The first thing to fix is qualifying. With green flag racing being the norm, track position is everything, 5 top 10 starts for Smoke so far, not good. The summer, which is usually good for Smoke, will be a struggle I think. He will be close to the cut off bubble or may have to rely on the wild card.
8) Carl Edwards – The 99 team has been consistent, but like last year, winning is more important. If Edwards wants to be in the title conversation, he has to join his other Roush teammates and get in victory lane. Consistency can only get you so far, why settle when you can get one more point.
9) Kevin Harvick – For a guy nicknamed “Happy” it’s hard to see why Harvick would be happy about racing these days. With only two top 5 finishes, Harvick and crew chief Shane Wilson are still working out some kinks. If Harvick had a teammate at RCR that he could better relate to, things may be different. It will be tough, but Harvick is tough to count out of making the Chase. I think he barely stays in the top ten and creates some drama that fans and especially media members will enjoy.
10) Kasey Kahne - Despite a rough start to the season Kahne has 6 straight top 10 finishes since Texas and has moved up to 15th in the points. Getting his first win for Hendrick Motorsports in the Coke 600 last week gives him an extra boost of momentum heading into this crucial stretch of the season. It also helps when you qualify well. Other than Daytona, Kasey hasn’t started worse than 10th. Kahne wins a couple more races and sets himself up for his career best finish in points.
Outside Hoping for Wildcard Spot
· Martin Truex Jr – Although he is currently 6th in points, the 56 team has lost a little of their previous thunder. Truex has 7 top ten finishes and is capable of winning races, but they still have work to do. I think he falls out of the top 10 in points due to others’ success. He struggles for a stretch of the summer. He needs to win and win soon.
· Ryan Newman – Though he won a wild race at Martinsville, Newman continues to be overshadowed by teammate and owner Tony Stewart. Only 3 top 10’s at this point in the season doesn’t get you far, so luckily Newman has a win. Another may be needed to make the Chase.
· Jeff Gordon – Like Newman, Gordon only has 3 top 10’s. Despite a string of bad luck, Gordon and team were able to put a whole race together at Charlotte, finishing 8th. Gordon isn’t close to the top 10 in points so the only way he makes the Chase is if he wins races. His team is more than capable and should have many chances in the next 14 races to make a wildcard spot. Pocono, the road courses, Bristol, and Atlanta are tracks where Gordon should be tough to beat.
· Juan Pable Montoya – This may come as a surprise, but I think Montoya has a chance to make the Chase. Saying Chip Ganassi Racing is struggling is an understatement. However, Montoya is really good on the road course and larger tracks like Michigan and Pocono. If he can stay in the top 20 in points, Montoya is my dark horse to make the Chase.
Can these predictions come true? Time will tell.
The view expressed are those of the writer, send comments and follow me on
Twitter, @Dontae_Allen
No comments:
Post a Comment